February 4, 2012
An Idiot's Guide To Regionals
Chronicling The Last Push For Feasterville
With only 3 more events left we begin the mad dash for the ECRHA’s regional finish line. With a total of forty-six teams across 5 divisions competing for only 31 total spots; we here at the ECRHA thought we’d give players, coaches, and fans alike a fool proof map to fill out the regional pools in each division. No speculation here just the facts and the scenarios facing each squad.
Junior College Division
Suffolk JC: Automatic Nationals bid and Regional Championship by way of being the only Junior College team in the ECRHA… Well that was easy enough.
Division III Playoff Picture:
(Single Round Robin, Top teams meet in the Championship 12pm March 4th)
First up, lets meet the teams in order CURRENT regional seating
1) Cortland 12-0-0 (24pts)*
2) Oswego 9-3-0 (18pts)*
3) Lehigh 4-4-2 (10pts)
4) Ramapo 3-5-2 (8pts)
5) Loyola 2-6-0 (4pts)
x) Syracuse 0-12-0 (0pts)
*Denotes that teams have clinched their spots.
Every team aside from Syracuse has grabbed themselves a playoff spot in this coming regional tournament; with that said, Cortland and Oswego have done their part by locking up the top two seeds in DIII. Lehigh, Ramapo and Loyola however have the very real possibility of shuffling positions before March 3rd. With Loyola having 4 games at hand, two each against Ramapo and Lehigh respectively, the Greyhounds can jump from fifth to third if they win out, or leap to fourth if they beat Ramapo twice, by virtue of head to head. Lehigh however can clinch third with just one win.
Division B Playoff Picture
8 team Round Robin with followed by a 6 team single elimination playoff)
Things get a little dicier here with 10 teams total battling for regional dominance between one another with eight regional spots up for grabs. There has been no clear separation between any of the teams this season in the B division as slight point separation between the cluster of teams in from 3rd to 8th communicates.
1) West Chester 12-1-0 (24pts)*
2) Hofstra 10-3-1 (21pts)*
3) Rowan 9-3-1 (19pts)*
4) Suffolk CC 8-5-0 (16pts)*
5) Temple 7-6-1 (15pts)*
6) Penn State 5-7-1 (11pts)*
7) Towson 3-7-3 (9pts)
8) Brockport 4-8-1 (9pts)
9) Stony Brook 2-11-0 (4pts)
10) Rutgers 2-11-0 (4pts)
*Denotes teams have clinched a playoff spot
In a very tight race in which no team is mathematically eliminated from regional contention Division B is shaping up to be far less one sided than many anticipated after the first two events.
In reality the Stony Brook Seawolves and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights will be on the outside looking in however despite having the two most difficult closing schedules having to play West Chester, Rowan, and Brockport as well as Suffolk, and Hofstra respectively both Rutgers and Stony Brook could win out and make the playoffs by the skins of their teeth; that is, of course, if both Brockport and Towson go winless in their last three games.
On the flipside, West Chester can clinch first overall with just one win against any of their final three opponents or through both of Hofstra and Rowan losing a game.
Nationals Implications:
If teams are peering into the looking glass of B National bids, aside from the Regional Championship autobid, the East only got 2 bids to nationals last year, and with the rough showing the top two B teams had in Pittsburgh this past weekend, that 2nd bid might be in jeopardy which makes it IMPERATIVE that teams who do make it into the top 8 for regionals win as many games in round robin by as many goals as possible in Feasterville to establish dominance over any other teams’ making a Nationals bid.
DII Playoff Picture
Early on DII really had the same feeling of the 2009-2010 Big 4 ECRHA DII but by All Star Weekend it was quite evident that DII in the ECRHA has the most parity and talent from top to bottom where any of the 8 playoff teams could legitimately be in contention for the National Championship in Utah this year.
1) Pittsburgh 14-0-1 (29pts)*
2) Northeastern 13-1-0 (26pts)*
3) Binghamton 10-2-2 (22pts)*
4) Queens 9-2-3 (21pts)*
5) Slippery Rock 8-3-4 (20 pts)*
6) UMass –Amherst 8-3-3 (19pts)
7) Delaware 7-6-2 (16pts)
8) Boston 7-8-0 (14 Pts)
9) Albany 6-8-0 (12pts)
10) Scranton 5-8-1 (11pts)
11) Vermont 4-10-1 (9pts)
12) Drexel 3-9-2 (8pts)
13) Cornell 2-12-1 (5pts) X
14) Shippensburg 1-12-1 (3pts) X
15) Millersville 0-13-1 (1pts) X
*Denotes teams have clinched a playoff spot
X Denotes mathematical elimination from playoff contention
As you can see there are two different clusters in the list; one between seeds three to six, and a second cluster from seeds to eleven. With that said the seeding for Division II (as last year proved) can be crucial, as regular season champion Pittsburgh got just about all it could handle from the 4th, 5th, and 8th seeds in last years’ regional tournament.
If the playoffs started today the pools would look like Pittsburgh, Queens, Slippery Rock and Boston in one pool, with Northeastern, Binghamton, UMass-Amherst, and Delaware in the other. However, keep in mind both Albany and Scranton have games at hand on Boston; and two of which are against Shippensburg and Millersville. Whereas Albany and Boston both have to play UMass and Northeastern, who they haven’t beaten all year and Delaware has to deal with both Queens, Drexel, and Binghamton all of whom they have not defeated this year.
Nationals Implications:
With the success of the ECRHA’s DII teams in region as well as the chance of improving upon the already successful interregional forays of Binghamton (9-2. 5-1 & 7-1 wins in the MCRHL); as Northeastern travels to New Orleans, LA this weekend and Binghamton travels to Chantilly, VA in mid-February. It’s completely possible that three bids and an alternate if not four bids will go to nationals in DII from the East this April. Although it is not a given take into consideration there are less RMCRHA, GPICHL, WCRHL and SECRHL teams this year due to the divisional applications also there is more interregional play happening from teams out of the ECRHA than anywhere else nationally. It would have to be a hard sell for other regions to debate against 3 bids (aside from the auto bid) going to any of the top 7 teams in the ECRHA.
DI Playoff Picture
Lastly, we go to the DI playoff picture, which, unlike the B and DII playoff seeding has 10 total teams making the mad dash to the regional championship game. With both Stony Brook, West Chester, Neumann and Hofstra all looking like they’re in good position to claim the first four seeds there are five teams within 4 points of one another and with each team with three to four games at hand before the playoffs begin, with that said let’s look at the standings:
1) West Chester 12-1-1 (25pts)*
2) Stony Brook 10-2-2 (22 pts)*
3) Neumann 9-3-2 (20pts)*
4) Hofstra 9-5-1 (19pts)*
5) Towson 8-5-2 (18pts)*
6) West Point 7-6-1 (15pts)
7) Temple 7-6-1 (15pts)
8) Penn State 7-7-2 (15pts)
9) UConn 6-7-2 (14pts)
10) Rowan 5-8-1 (11pts)
11) Buffalo 4-10-0 (8pts)
12) Brockport 3-10-1 (7pts)
13) Rhode Island 3-11-1 (7pts)
14) Rutgers 1-12-1 (3pts)
*Denotes teams have clinched a playoff spot
With only five teams locked in for regionals, and three teams realistically competing for the number one seed; we divert our attention to the 6 through 9 seeds and the 10 through 12 seeds. The cluster of West Point, Penn State and UConn all have the ability to fall out of playoff contention or move up to 3rd; the capability to do so, relies heavily on their own play going into March, now is as good as any for the teams to start a positive streak like UConn winners in 2 straight and Temple winners in 6 of their last 8 games and for teams trending downward like Penn St. and Rowan who both have only won 2 in their last 5 games.
Buffalo, URI and Brockport all have a legitimate chance at boosting themselves into playoff contention however Brockport, and Rhode Island have the misfortune of playing West Chester, Neumann, Stony Brook and Hofstra respectively. Buffalo also seems to have found their swagger after a four game losing streak at the Skate Safe America event. Note Buffalo also has games against three teams directly above them.
Nationals Implications:
An unprecedented eight teams total went to nationals last year, out of a 24 total seeds, 3 bids more than the next closest region, the Midwest, who had five in 2010-11. Now, with every ECRHA team going out of region, the teams who are possibly missing Regionals have a chance to boost the overall stock of the ECRHA and look to steal another 8 bids going forward into nationals. When it’s all said and done any of the 10 teams at regionals in the ECRHA can make a deep run into the National tournament.
Final Thoughts and Quick Predictions:
DIII: SUNY Cortland will go undefeated for the remainder of 2012, and move to DII along side Oswego.
B: Suffolk CC will be a surprise finalist in the B division championship.
DII: Pittsburgh, Northeastern, Binghamton and Slippery Rock will all make nationals.
DI: If Tyler DaSilva and Nick Tomczyk play out the 2011-12 season UConn Will make it to regionals and past the round robin round.